Music Industry Growing eMarketer's report today talks about growth in the music industry (yes, believe it or not, GROWTH). Revenues last year (2006) were $60.7 billion and by 2011 will be $67.6 billion (about a 2% annual growth rate). The report states the obvious that CD sales will continue to plummet and digital continue to grow, however, digital sales will never make up for the loss from CD's. Thus, the growth will come from other innovative ways to exploit the music such as online and mobile, concerts, licensing deals with TV, films, video games, and tie in with various products (the report states U2 and iPod and Bob Dylan and Victoria's Secret). I think that the record labels have definitely enjoyed a monopoly on this business for a while, however, in order for good music to continue to be put out, there needs to be a way to monetize this business. Apple recently put announced that 100 million iPods were sold and about 2.5 billion songs sold via iTunes, which puts each iPod on average with 25 legally downloaded songs, a far cry from the thousands of songs that you can put on it. So where is the other music coming from? I wonder....Regardless, some very interesting models have come out, one of them I talked about before called AmieStreet which is a true supply and demand model. However, with sites like MySpace offering streaming music how would a band make money from them? The answer: Poptopus. Poptopus (reviewed by Mashable), is a widget (we talked about these yesterday) that you can embed on your site and revenue is shared by the artist and the publisher. Advertisements play in the video portion of the player and are paid on a per listen basis. It's actually a radio type model but uses the visual portion of the Internet to play the commercial while you are enjoying the music. I think its a great way to utilize the single servingness of the Web with a business model that could be sustainable. And since everyone makes money, or gets eyeballs, everyone should be happy....the one downside I see is that if a popular band doesn't want to be associated with a certain advertiser (but I think those are few and far between).
Regardless, its a good time for the music business as they've finally embraced the Internet as opposed to fighting it and it turns out that artists as a whole will be making more money than ever and some artists will actually be able to call themselves full time musicians because of this long tail phenomenon. We'll keep track of the music space as it continues to innovate....perhaps Sirius XM can take a lesson here? (i.e. Give away your units and advertise on your proprietary hardware?)
Perceptions of Online Video
Today's eMarketer statistic noted that most media and entertainment executives thought that online video (especially short form content) had the highest growth potential, triple that of the current cash printing format, the video game. Further they report that user generated content will be more than half of what is viewed online. However, the major difficulty here (in summing up the report) is
Commercials
Inconsistency of Production
Bad Search Capabilities/Too Much Stuff!
Now, I have to note that user generated content and short form content seem to be grouped together at least in the way that eMarketer has presented it. However, I have to point out a distinction between pure amateur video, prosumer/semi professional video, and professional video. While amateur video will always have a market (wacky clips taken on the moment by your cell phone camera), the rising of the "middle class," the prosumer/semi professional video will be the one to watch. These are the filmmakers/videographers with the new $5200 AG-HVX200 HD Panasonic camera, the latest Final Cut Studio for $1200, the latest Adobe After Effects for $1199 and so on. They'll have all the tools to make professional grade media, but at a fraction of the labor cost, and without the connections to achieve mainstream distribution. If you notice the top 10 all time viewed YouTube videos, 7 of them have editing that is probably beyond the scope of iMovie or Windows Movie Maker.
I've argued that semi-professional videos will soon become the growing segment of online video, but as a marketer, how does that affect you? I think that it may mean access to lower production costs and more ideas for getting your brands out to audiences. From my limited knowledge of production, I know that it takes 5 guys to change a light bulb due to all of the union regulations out there. Well, now the guy in Iowa can create similar content at a fraction of the cost without the labor unions. It also means that with large prizes like a Superbowl Commercial (a la Doritos), more and more prosumers will be vying for an opportunity to utilize your marketing muscle to make it big. If Frito Lay were smart, they'd be asking some of their runners up to be creating their next wave of commercials (again at a fraction of the cost). But, here's the most interesting one: As computer skills become as necessary as typing skills were 30 years ago, we're going to see a new age of marketer: the creative techie marketer. Marketers: Be on the lookout for this person (or these people) as they will be pushing the frontier of what is possible in this new and exciting space.
